LONDON (UP) - Professor Arnold Toynbee, 60, one of the world's foremost historians, predicts the "cold war" with Russia will not become a shooting war until the year 2000 at the earliest.
The author of the six-volume "Study of History" said the cold war probably would be fought in Asia for the next 50 years - because communism has been contained in Europe - and that a "shooting war is not inevitable within the next 50 years."
"The aims of the two principal parties in the cold war, Russia and the Western powers, are better served by a cold war," Toynbee said. "I would be extremely surprised if either party resorted to a shooting war."
Toynbee said Russia had received two setbacks during the past year - Berlin and Yugoslavia.
"Both were victories for the Western powers," he said. "Berlin especially so because it did not develop into a shooting war."
How Experts Think We'll Live in 2000 A.D. (1950)
Will War Drive Civilization Underground? (1942)
The Fearless Futurist (New York Times, 1968)